Data up to and including 11.11.2026.
What happened in finished matches with BetKing's line: how often odds movements came true and how accurate the line itself was.
Do odds movements come true?
We take every finished match with BetKing's line up to kick-off (in-play odds are excluded). A signal is an outcome whose odds moved from opening to close by at least 10% (1X2) or 7% (both teams to score, total 2.5): a drop means the market backed that outcome, a rise means it turned away from it. “Came true” means the event happened. Next to it is the margin-free probability of the same event at the opening and the closing line: if signals come true more often than the closing line implied, the market underrated its own move. The closing line is the odds at kick-off: the first point after the whistle if it came within 15 min and before any goal, otherwise the last one before kick-off.
Last 30 days
| Market | Signals | Came true | Opening line | Closing line | Verdict |
|---|
| 1X2 | 7476 | 63% | 57% | 63% | about as often as the market implied |
| Both teams to score | 1984 | 54% | 50% | 55% | about as often as the market implied |
| Total 2.5 goals | 3547 | 57% | 51% | 56% | about as often as the market implied |
Last 90 days
| Market | Signals | Came true | Opening line | Closing line | Verdict |
|---|
| 1X2 | 21575 | 63% | 57% | 62% | about as often as the market implied |
| Both teams to score | 5600 | 55% | 50% | 55% | about as often as the market implied |
| Total 2.5 goals | 10097 | 56% | 51% | 56% | about as often as the market implied |
Details for 90 days
1X2
| Signals | Came true | Opening line | Closing line |
|---|
| Odds fell (the market backed the outcome) | 6040 | 24% | 20% | 25% |
| Odds rose (the market turned away) | 15535 | 78% | 71% | 77% |
| Move 10–20% | 10403 | 57% | 54% | 57% |
| Move 20–30% | 5407 | 61% | 55% | 60% |
| Move 30%+ | 5765 | 74% | 64% | 73% |
Both teams to score
| Signals | Came true | Opening line | Closing line |
|---|
| Odds fell (the market backed the outcome) | 1602 | 45% | 40% | 45% |
| Odds rose (the market turned away) | 3998 | 58% | 54% | 59% |
| Move 7–14% | 4069 | 53% | 50% | 54% |
| Move 14–21% | 1072 | 59% | 51% | 58% |
| Move 21%+ | 459 | 56% | 50% | 61% |
Total 2.5 goals
| Signals | Came true | Opening line | Closing line |
|---|
| Odds fell (the market backed the outcome) | 2628 | 43% | 39% | 44% |
| Odds rose (the market turned away) | 7469 | 61% | 55% | 61% |
| Move 7–14% | 6699 | 55% | 50% | 54% |
| Move 14–21% | 2256 | 59% | 52% | 58% |
| Move 21%+ | 1142 | 63% | 54% | 64% |
One-way line: odds only fell or only rose
An outcome's odds only fell or only rose from opening to kick-off — no pullback at all, at least 3 changes. Came true: the odds fell and the outcome happened, or the odds rose and it did not. Next to it is the probability of the same at the opening and closing line.
Last 30 days
| Market | | Cases | Came true | Opening line | Closing line | Verdict |
|---|
| 1X2 | Only fell | 424 | 45% | 34% | 41% | about as often as the market implied |
| 1X2 | Only rose | 615 | 70% | 64% | 71% | about as often as the market implied |
| Both teams to score | Only fell | 27 | 41% | 49% | 54% | less often than the market implied |
| Both teams to score | Only rose | 36 | 44% | 50% | 54% | less often than the market implied |
| Total 2.5 goals | Only fell | 52 | 67% | 50% | 58% | more often than the market implied |
| Total 2.5 goals | Only rose | 66 | 62% | 50% | 57% | more often than the market implied |
Last 90 days
| Market | | Cases | Came true | Opening line | Closing line | Verdict |
|---|
| 1X2 | Only fell | 1398 | 44% | 35% | 42% | about as often as the market implied |
| 1X2 | Only rose | 1944 | 72% | 65% | 72% | about as often as the market implied |
| Both teams to score | Only fell | 159 | 58% | 49% | 55% | about as often as the market implied |
| Both teams to score | Only rose | 209 | 55% | 50% | 55% | about as often as the market implied |
| Total 2.5 goals | Only fell | 247 | 61% | 50% | 57% | about as often as the market implied |
| Total 2.5 goals | Only rose | 321 | 60% | 51% | 57% | about as often as the market implied |
Site signals: did they come true
Signals the site shows and the bot sends, in finished matches: how often the signal's event happened and what probability BetKing's opening and closing line gave it. For a sharp move and a jump series the event depends on direction: odds fell — the outcome happened, odds rose — it did not. For a spike and a double jump the event is that the outcome happened.
- Sharp move before kick-off — Any bookmaker's odds changed sharply between two neighbouring points shortly before kick-off.
- Jump series — Three BetKing odds jumps in a row in one direction, each from 10%, all within 15 min.
- Spike up and back — BetKing's odds jumped up and came back within 1–3 points.
- Double jump — BetKing's odds jumped up twice and came back in between.
Last 30 days
| Signal | Event | Cases | Happened | Opening line | Closing line | Verdict |
|---|
| Sharp move before kick-off | Fell → the outcome happened | 30 | 13% | 11% | 10% | about as often as the market implied |
| Sharp move before kick-off | Rose → the outcome did not happen | 198 | 83% | 77% | 81% | about as often as the market implied |
| Jump series | Fell → the outcome happened | 3 | 33% | 27% | 50% | not enough data yet |
| Jump series | Rose → the outcome did not happen | 8 | 75% | 72% | 80% | not enough data yet |
| Spike up and back | The outcome happened | 70 | 17% | 23% | 24% | less often than the market implied |
| Double jump | The outcome happened | 26 | 15% | 22% | 16% | about as often as the market implied |
Last 90 days
| Signal | Event | Cases | Happened | Opening line | Closing line | Verdict |
|---|
| Sharp move before kick-off | Fell → the outcome happened | 30 | 13% | 11% | 10% | about as often as the market implied |
| Sharp move before kick-off | Rose → the outcome did not happen | 198 | 83% | 77% | 81% | about as often as the market implied |
| Jump series | Fell → the outcome happened | 3 | 33% | 27% | 50% | not enough data yet |
| Jump series | Rose → the outcome did not happen | 8 | 75% | 72% | 80% | not enough data yet |
| Spike up and back | The outcome happened | 70 | 17% | 23% | 24% | less often than the market implied |
| Double jump | The outcome happened | 82 | 13% | 18% | 14% | about as often as the market implied |
How accurate is the closing line
Every outcome of finished matches, grouped by its margin-free probability at the closing line. If the line is accurate, in each group the outcome happens about as often as it promised.
The 1X2 favourite at the closing line won 54% of matches — the line implied 52%.
Last 90 days
1X2
| Line probability | Outcomes | Happened | Line implied |
|---|
| 0–10% | 3242 | 4% | 7% |
| 10–20% | 13435 | 14% | 16% |
| 20–30% | 39077 | 24% | 25% |
| 30–40% | 19887 | 34% | 34% |
| 40–50% | 12238 | 46% | 45% |
| 50–60% | 8201 | 57% | 55% |
| 60–70% | 4501 | 69% | 64% |
| 70–80% | 2336 | 78% | 74% |
| 80–90% | 1205 | 90% | 85% |
| 90–100% | 104 | 98% | 91% |
Both teams to score
| Line probability | Outcomes | Happened | Line implied |
|---|
| 10–20% | 6 | 50% | 18% |
| 20–30% | 357 | 29% | 27% |
| 30–40% | 4692 | 37% | 36% |
| 40–50% | 14239 | 46% | 45% |
| 50–60% | 16079 | 54% | 54% |
| 60–70% | 4740 | 63% | 64% |
| 70–80% | 357 | 71% | 73% |
| 80–90% | 6 | 50% | 82% |
Total 2.5 goals
| Line probability | Outcomes | Happened | Line implied |
|---|
| 0–10% | 2 | 0% | 9% |
| 10–20% | 88 | 15% | 16% |
| 20–30% | 1844 | 24% | 27% |
| 30–40% | 8438 | 34% | 36% |
| 40–50% | 19508 | 45% | 45% |
| 50–60% | 21304 | 55% | 55% |
| 60–70% | 8438 | 66% | 64% |
| 70–80% | 1844 | 76% | 73% |
| 80–90% | 88 | 85% | 84% |
| 90–100% | 2 | 100% | 91% |
How to read this page
The few ideas every table relies on, and how we calculate them.
- Opening and closing line
- Opening is BetKing's first price for the match. Closing is the price at kick-off: the first point after the whistle if it came within 15 min and before any goal, otherwise the last one before kick-off. In-play odds are excluded.
- Signal, or a notable move
- An outcome's odds moved from opening to close by at least 10% (1X2) or 7% (both teams to score, total 2.5). For each match and market we take one move — the biggest.
- “Came true” and “the outcome happened”
- Falling odds mean the market backed the outcome: the signal came true if the outcome happened. Rising odds mean it turned away: the signal came true if the outcome did not happen. “Happened” in the signal and accuracy tables simply means the event took place.
- “Line implied” and “the market implied”
- The probability of the same event from the odds without the bookmaker's margin: 1/odds for each outcome of the market, divided by their sum so they add up to 100%. For a rising-odds signal it is the probability that the outcome did not happen.
- Verdict
- “More often than the market implied” — the event happened at least 5 percentage points more often than the closing line promised; “less often” — 5 pp less often; “about as often” — a smaller gap. Fewer than 20 cases — “not enough data yet”.
- 30- and 90-day windows
- A summary of all finished matches over the last 30 or 90 days, updated every morning. Site signals (sharp moves, spikes) are kept for 30 days, so their window may be shorter — the number of days is then shown next to them.
Example
The home-win odds fell from 2.50 to 2.00 (−20%) — a signal: the market backed the home side. Without the margin the line gave them 38% at the opening and 46% at the close. If the home side won 55 of 100 such signals, 55% came true — more often than the market implied (46%): the move carried extra information. Had they won 46, the move would simply have priced them correctly.
These are statistics about past matches, not a forecast or betting advice.
Odds Plot (OddsPlot.com) is a football data analytics and odds visualization platform. We collect bookmaker odds across more than 1000 football leagues, cups and tournaments (such as LaLiga) and turn every pre-match line into a readable chart: 1X2, "both teams to score" and "over/under 2.5", with several bookmakers compared side by side. On top of the data we build analytics: Top Movers, dropping odds, line-accuracy statistics, similar lines and short summaries for leagues and teams. For matches already in play or finished, the chart stops at the closing line — not live in-play odds.