Greece welcome the Netherlands to Thessaloniki on 1 October with the 1X2 market having moved noticeably in the hosts' favour since the odds first opened. With both sides unbeaten through the opening rounds of this UEFA Nations League A group, the price action suggests bookmakers are recalibrating around Greece's form and a Dutch squad carrying some fresh knocks into the fixture.
What the 1X2 chart shows
Across 1,241 tracked data points, the Greece win price has contracted from an opening 3.66 down to 3.33, a move of -9.0%. The draw has been essentially flat, ticking up marginally from 3.6 to 3.66 (+1.7%), while the Netherlands price has drifted out from 1.96 to 2.12, an increase of +8.2%. That combination — home price shortening, away price drifting, draw untouched — is a classic signature of money and information flowing toward the home side rather than a market bracing for a tighter, more balanced contest. The sampled points along the curve show the move wasn't a single jump but a gradual walk: prices sat at 3.66/3.6/1.96 for a stretch, stepped through 3.25/3.6/2.1, and have now settled at 3.33/3.66/2.12, indicating sustained rather than one-off repricing.
Both teams to score and Over 2.5
The goal markets have moved in the same direction as each other and are consistent with the story in the 1X2 board. BTTS Yes has shortened from 1.66 to 1.58 (-4.8%), with No drifting from 2.12 to 2.33 (+9.9%); in implied-probability terms that's a shift from 56% to 60% for both teams finding the net. Over 2.5 has followed an almost identical path, moving from 1.76 to 1.66 (-5.7%) while Under 2.5 eased out from 2.00 to 2.16 (+8.0%), taking the implied probability of Over 2.5 from 53% to 57%. Both trend lines show the same pattern — odds held steady for several ticks before stepping down late (BTTS Yes from 1.64 to 1.58; Over 2.5 from 1.76 to 1.66) — which reads as the market reacting to a specific piece of information rather than drifting gradually. Importantly, this isn't a signal of a cagier, low-scoring affair: a shortening home price alongside shortening BTTS and Over 2.5 prices together suggest the market anticipates Greece can score against this Dutch side rather than sit in and defend a stalemate.
What the news says
The team news lines up with that picture. Greece head into this match having sealed a shock 1-0 away victory against Jürgen Klopp's Germany, leaving Ivan Jovanovic's men as the surprise leaders of League A, Group 2, after winning back-to-back games to start the campaign . On the injury front, Sotiris Kontouris and Giannis Konstantelias are Greece's only injury concerns for the contest , a notably light list for a squad on a winning run. The Netherlands, by contrast, have had to manage a costlier injury blow: Cody Gakpo has withdrawn from international duty with an ankle injury, with Ruben van Bommel expected to replace him in the starting XI . Brian Brobbey is also unavailable, adding to a Dutch forward line missing one of its most in-form players. On the pitch, Mexx Meerdink scored a brace to help the Netherlands beat Serbia last time out in a game marred by the Gakpo injury, with the visitors starting their campaign with four points from two games .
What it means for the market
Taken together, the data points to bookmakers nudging closer to Greece as genuine contenders rather than plucky underdogs, helped by the visitors losing Gakpo — arguably their most dangerous attacking outlet — for this trip. At the same time, nobody is pricing a shutout: BTTS and Over 2.5 both firming suggests traders still expect goals from a Greek side that has scored in each of its wins and a Dutch attack that, even without Gakpo, has shown it can find the net through Meerdink and others. For anyone tracking the market, the clearest read is a genuinely competitive, goal-friendly fixture where the home draw has narrowed without disappearing, rather than a one-sided move toward either result.