Belgium host France at the King Baudouin Stadium on Monday, September 28, in a UEFA Nations League A, Group A1 fixture with kickoff at 21:45. Both sides arrive on maximum points after opening-round wins, and the pre-match market has moved with real conviction across more than 1,300 tracked price points.
What the chart shows
The line has shifted in one clear direction. Belgium's home price (1) opened at 3.60 and has drifted out to 4.00, an increase of 11.1% that signals fading confidence in a Red Devils win. The draw has also edged up modestly, from 3.66 to 3.80 (+3.8%). France's price (2), by contrast, has shortened from 1.96 to 1.88, a 4.1% move that puts Zinédine Zidane's side firmly as market favorites. The intermediate sample points show some volatility along the way — including a spike to 4.5/4.0/1.7 and a brief widening to 3.8/4.2/1.8 — before settling back toward the current 4.0/3.8/1.88 print, suggesting the move wasn't a single straight-line drift but included some two-way trading before the France price found its floor.
What the news says
The headline team-news item is a knee injury that will keep Kylian Mbappe out of action when the two-time world champions face Belgium on Monday . He suffered the issue while scoring the winner in France's opening 1-0 win over Türkiye, and reports indicate the country's leading scorer will be out of action for two weeks . France also have further absences, with central midfielder Warren Zaire-Emery also out with a thigh injury, while defensive midfielder Matteo Guendouzi is suspended . Even so, the visiting attack retains serious quality: the talented trio of Michael Olise, Ousmane Dembele and Desire Doue will take responsibility in front of goal on match day two of the competition .
Belgium's absentee list is shorter but notable. Forward Leandro Trossard remains unavailable while recovering from a persistent heel injury, and long-term absentees Jérémy Doku and goalkeeper Thibaut Courtois also remain out of the selection framework. Backup keeper Mike Penders is also carrying a muscle issue. On the plus side, manager Mark van Bommel enjoys stability as his squad has no major new injury concerns , and the hosts arrive full of confidence after a convincing 2-0 victory over Italy in the coach's first match in charge.
What it means for the market
On paper, losing a captain and top scorer to injury would typically push a team's price out, not in. That France shortened anyway points to bookmakers weighing France's attacking depth, and history, more heavily than one absence — Belgium have lost all five of the last five meetings of the sides . For Belgium backers, the drift on the hosts despite a positive result over Italy and a settled squad is the more counterintuitive signal on the board, and it's worth watching whether official confirmed lineups near kickoff pull the price back the other way.